"Bad faith" means intentionally misrepresenting your beliefs
The confusion
I recently came upon a comment which I believe reflects a persistent confusion among rationalist/EA types. I was reading this post which contains ideas that the other has but doesn&
Will AI make everything more correlated?
The power of low correlations
One innovation on social media that I perceive as having received a reasonable amount of praise from diverse constituencies is "Community Notes" on X (Twitter at
I want the deal that the US Government got
How they really feel about privacy
I took at look at the prediction market Kalshi recently, and came across something interesting on their FAQ page. This page appears to me to be largely
Assessing heterogeneity in METR's late 2025 developer productivity experiment
Update: Fixed exponentiation of estimated parameters.
Summary
I use data from METR's recent developer productivity experiment to assess the possibility of heterogeneity in the effect of AI on time to complete
Don't accuse your interlocutor of making arguments that aren’t rooted in evidence
This post is a sequel to my previous smash hit, don't accuse your interlocutor of being insufficiently truth-seeking. Like many good sequels, I've mostly just reskinned all the same